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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."